By Diana N. Kintu
The Ministry of Water and Environment has released the official weather outlook for February 2026, forecasting predominantly dry conditions across most parts of the country, with isolated rainfall expected in parts of the Lake Victoria Basin and the south-western region.
According to a statement signed by the Permanent Secretary, Dr Alfred Okot Okidi, February marks the end of the December–January–February dry season, which is typically characterised by hot and sunny conditions.
However, interactions between regional high-pressure systems and local atmospheric dynamics have pushed the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) northwards, resulting in rainfall in some parts of central and south-western Uganda.
Dr Okidi noted that while most of the northern and eastern regions will remain dry until late February, isolated showers are expected in the western and central regions towards the end of the month.
Temperatures are forecast to rise, with maximum averages ranging between 28°C and 32°C in most areas.
Highland regions such as Rwenzori, Elgon and Kigezi are expected to experience cooler conditions of between 20°C and 26°C.
Minimum temperatures in highland areas may drop below 12°C, while parts of West Nile and the Lake Albert Rift Valley could record warmer night-time temperatures ranging between 22°C and 24°C.
Dr Okidi also outlined potential impacts associated with the forecast, including crop failure due to prolonged dry spells, water stress for livestock and communities, and an increased risk of vector-borne diseases such as malaria in areas experiencing warmer conditions.
In addition, localised flash floods and landslides may occur in mountainous and low-lying areas during episodes of intense rainfall.
Communities have been advised to practise rainwater harvesting, protect open water sources and consult agricultural extension officers for region-specific guidance.
Motorists have been cautioned to exercise extra care during foggy mornings, while households are encouraged to use treated mosquito nets to guard against malaria.
Dr Okidi emphasised that the Ministry will continue monitoring weather patterns and issuing timely updates to strengthen resilience and support planning.
“This weather update requires timely action to mitigate risks and make use of favourable conditions where applicable,” he said.