By Caroline.N.
Uganda has launched a new economic rebasing exercise aimed at accurately reflecting the growing influence of the oil and gas sector ahead of the country’s long-awaited first oil. The initiative, led by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) in partnership with the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, seeks to provide a more realistic picture of the nation’s economic structure, output, and growth trajectory.
Economic rebasing involves updating national accounts to incorporate new industries, emerging activities, and improved data-collection methods. Uganda last rebased its economy in 2019, which resulted in a larger estimated GDP following the inclusion of contemporary sectors and refined statistical techniques. However, officials say rapid shifts in the economic landscape—particularly the expansion of petroleum-related activities—necessitate another update.
UBOS notes that the current structure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) does not sufficiently capture the extensive investments and value-chain activities linked to oil exploration, pipeline development, refinery works, and associated service sectors. With billions of dollars already committed to the Tilenga and Kingfisher projects, as well as the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), policymakers argue that the oil sector’s footprint must be formally integrated into national accounts before commercial production begins.
At the launch of the rebasing programme in Kampala, senior officials from the Ministry of Finance emphasised that the exercise is essential for long-term economic planning. As oil activities expand, the sector’s contribution to GDP, employment, exports, and government revenue is expected to grow significantly. Incorporating these elements into official statistics will shape fiscal policy, debt-sustainability analysis, resource allocation, and broader national development priorities.
Economists note that rebasing will enhance the accuracy of key indicators such as per-capita income, investment volumes, and productivity levels. A more comprehensive GDP figure could also influence Uganda’s classification within international economic groupings and affect access to concessional financing. While a larger GDP may signal progress, it could simultaneously reduce eligibility for certain forms of development assistance—an outcome government technocrats say they are preparing to address through stronger domestic revenue mobilisation.
Beyond the petroleum sector, the rebasing is expected to integrate other rapidly expanding industries, including digital services, fintech, creative arts, and modern manufacturing. UBOS will rely on updated business registers, enhanced household surveys, and improved data-collection systems to better capture the evolving economy. The agency also plans to develop satellite accounts for emerging sectors such as environmental services and the digital economy to ensure a more holistic understanding of growth patterns.
While economists have welcomed the move, they caution that an enlarged economic size does not automatically translate into improved living standards. They emphasise that the real challenge lies in managing oil revenues responsibly and investing them in productive sectors such as infrastructure, health, education, and industrial development.
Civil society organisations have likewise urged government to uphold transparency throughout the rebasing process, noting that reliable data is crucial for accountability in managing natural-resource wealth. Accurate statistics, they argue, will help citizens track whether oil revenues are being used effectively and whether benefits are equitably distributed.
With first oil expected in the coming years, Uganda’s economic landscape is on the cusp of major transformation. The ongoing rebasing exercise is seen as a strategic step in preparing the country for the realities of a petroleum-driven economy. As the process progresses, the nation awaits updated GDP figures that will reflect not only the present structure of the economy but also the opportunities—and challenges—posed by joining the ranks of oil-producing countries.